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China’s oil demand will reach a peak of 690 million tons in 2030

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China’s oil demand will reach a peak of 690 million tons in 2030, 2030 after the proportion of oil demand in the world, will gradually decline to about 12%.
August 16, the China Petroleum Economic and Technological Research Institute released the 2017 edition of the “World and China Energy Outlook 2050” report (hereinafter referred to as the report). This is the second year of China Energy released the Energy Outlook report, this year’s report mainly predicted the 2030 and 2050 energy supply and demand situation.
“China’s crude oil production in 2030 to maintain the level of 200 million tons, and then gradually decline.” Fossil energy demand in 2030 reached its peak, natural gas will continue to grow in 2050, China’s natural gas demand in 2050 accounted for 15% about. “China Petroleum Technology Research Institute Energy Industry analyst Liu Chang said that from the increase in demand for natural gas, China’s natural gas demand growth in 2020-2030 will reach 38%, then gradually fell to less than 10%.
“Compared with last year’s outlook, the biggest change in the Energy Outlook Report in 2017 is an increase in energy demand.” Jiang Xuefeng, vice president of the China Petroleum Economic and Technical Research Institute, said at the press conference that with the improvement of residents’ quality of life and the convenience of transport facilities The demand for energy in the transport sector will continue to increase by 2050.
Last year, China Petroleum forecast, China’s transportation capacity will reach its peak in 2030, about 380 million tons, accounting for about 55% of the total oil demand. This year’s report shows that by 2030, domestic transportation and chemical raw materials accounted for 97% of oil demand growth, of which traffic accounted for about 73% of demand increases.
The growth of traffic oil is mainly due to the increase in demand for high energy consumption such as car ownership and civil aviation oil. “China’s car ownership in 2050 close to 500 million, an increase of 1.8 times over 2015.” PetroChina Institute of Economic and Technological Research Energy analyst Wang Lining said that when China’s 1000 car ownership will reach 350, of which the new energy vehicles to maintain The amount will reach 30%.
From the oil species, diesel demand will decline steadily, car demand will reach its peak in 2025, but the aviation kerosene demand will continue to grow in 2050.
“Traffic oil in 2030 and 2050, respectively, accounted for traffic demand and traffic requirements of 78% and 65%.” Wang Lining said that although the new energy vehicles, high-speed rail and other modes of transport and shared travel on the traffic oil caused significant impact, But the proportion of fuel vehicles in the outlook period is still relatively high, coupled with the development of air transport to ease this trend.
“This year the share of the economy brought about by the oil reduction of about 1.4 million tons, accounting for less than 1% of domestic oil demand is expected in the long-term (2050 years ago) will not have much impact on oil demand,” the oil economy Technical Research Institute Oil Market Research Institute chief engineer Chen Rui said.

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